Risk-aware time estimation technique that calculates expected duration using optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic scenarios to account for uncertainty in project planning.
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Three-Point Estimation
Three-Point Estimation is a time and cost estimation technique that considers uncertainty and risk by using three estimates: optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic. This approach provides a more realistic and reliable estimate than single-point estimates.
Expected Time = (O + M + P) / 3
Simple average of the three estimates, giving equal weight to all scenarios.
Expected Time = (O + 4M + P) / 6
Weighted average that gives more weight to the most likely scenario, commonly used in project management.
SD = (P - O) / 6
Measures the uncertainty or risk in the estimate.
Task: Develop a new feature
PERT Estimate = (5 + 4×8 + 15) / 6 = 52 / 6 = 8.67 days
Standard Deviation = (15 - 5) / 6 = 1.67 days
This indicates an expected duration of about 9 days with moderate uncertainty.
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